Now that 2012 is over, it is time to update a comparison of simulations and observations of global mean temperatures.
Continue reading Updated comparison of simulations and observations
Category Archives: projections
Visualising the role of natural variability
A new analysis by Clara Deser and colleagues (accepted for Nature Climate Change), provides some fantastic visualisations of the crucial role of natural variability in how we will experience climate. Continue reading Visualising the role of natural variability
Global temperatures over the past decade
It is well known that the past decade or so has seen less global warming than might have been expected – but what is the cause? This is more of a discussion post, rather than any new analysis. Continue reading Global temperatures over the past decade
Projections of maize yields in France
A rather specific question today – what will happen to maize yields in France in 2016-2035? Continue reading Projections of maize yields in France
On comparing models and observations
There has been some recent blog discussion on comparing observations and climate models consistently. Here is my effort at such a comparison using the CMIP5 models which are already available. Continue reading On comparing models and observations
Climate uncertainty: moving from 'what' to 'when'
Update (23/10/11): The full article has now been published in Nature Climate Change
Climate projections (such as from the IPCC) usually consider the question of “what will happen to our future climate”. But, this question may be more informative if it is changed to “when will it happen”? Continue reading Climate uncertainty: moving from 'what' to 'when'
Uncertainty in uncertainty
There has been much discussion recently on whether GCMs participating in intercomparisons, such as CMIP3 and CMIP5, are ‘independent’. But if they are not, how does this make a difference to the uncertainty in our projections for future climate? Continue reading Uncertainty in uncertainty
Visualising climate with 2d colour bars
A recent paper by Teuling et al. suggested the use of 2d colour bars for visualising climate fields. I thought I would give this a try – and Ryan Teuling was kind enough to provide the code to construct the colour bars. Continue reading Visualising climate with 2d colour bars