Sources of uncertainty

by Ed Hawkins

Quantifying the different sources of uncertainty in climate projections is important to assess the potential to narrow uncertainty. I have been involved in several recent studies examining this problem, and have created an interactive website to allow users to explore uncertainties for various regions for both temperature and precipitation, including an example for the UK.

Similar studies have looked at uncertainty in ozone and Amazon forest projections and explored different ways of decomposing the uncertainties.

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