At a recent weather festival, Roger Brugge presented a reconstruction of temperatures from 1863 to 2011 for a small patch of the UK, namely Berkshire, which I found interesting. Continue reading A 150 year temperature history from Berkshire
Nice climate figures
“A picture is worth a thousand words”, says the popular adage. It is something that we, as climate scientists, should take seriously, especially given the vast quantities of literature we might read through. Continue reading Nice climate figures
On comparing models and observations
There has been some recent blog discussion on comparing observations and climate models consistently. Here is my effort at such a comparison using the CMIP5 models which are already available. Continue reading On comparing models and observations
The value of old weather observations
Previous posts have described some initial analysis of the data from the Old Weather project, which is using public volunteers to digitise new historical weather observations from Royal Navy ships during World War 1. The good news is that these observations will improve our knowledge of the atmospheric circulation. Continue reading The value of old weather observations
Reconstructing Atlantic atmospheric variability
In a previous post I discussed the Old Weather project which is using volunteers to transcribe the hand-written weather data from Royal Navy ships logs in the World War 1 period. The good news is the first 243 ships have been completed (providing data scattered throughout the period 1914-1923), and some simple analysis shows whether this data can help reconstruct past Atlantic atmospheric variability. Continue reading Reconstructing Atlantic atmospheric variability
The importance of reliable uncertainty estimates
Reliable estimates of uncertainty are arguably more important than the actual value being quoted. I recently came across a classic example in astronomy. Continue reading The importance of reliable uncertainty estimates
What happens if you spin the Earth backwards?
This might sound like a crazy idea, but bear with me. I mean, why not? We’ve got some pretty general computer models of the climate, all we have to do is change the sign of a couple of numbers. Continue reading What happens if you spin the Earth backwards?
Time of emergence of climate signals
The time at which the signal of climate change emerges from the ‘noise’ of natural climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key variable for climate predictions and risk assessments. Continue reading Time of emergence of climate signals