Climate information for the future is usually presented in the form of scenarios: plausible and consistent descriptions of future climate without probability information. This suffices for many purposes, but for the near term, say up to 2050, scenarios of emissions of greenhouse gases do not diverge much and we could work towards climate forecasts: calibrated probability distributions of the climate in the future. Continue reading Reliability of regional climate trends
Category Archives: observations
Constraining projections with observations
Can past observations be used to help constrain future temperature projections? This question is particularly relevant given the last decade which has shown relatively less warming than expected. Continue reading Constraining projections with observations
Updated comparison of simulations and observations
Now that 2012 is over, it is time to update a comparison of simulations and observations of global mean temperatures.
Continue reading Updated comparison of simulations and observations