The temporary slowdown in global temperatures in the early-2000s is still prompting significant scientific discussion. A recent Commentary on the topic by Fyfe et al. was summarised in an earlier post. In response, a recent post by Rahmstorf et al. reiterates some of the statistical arguments that we discussed briefly in our Commentary1, but misses the main point. Continue reading Slowdown discussion
It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming ‘slowdown’ or ‘hiatus’, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented in a new commentary in Nature Climate Change by Fyfe et al. contradicts these claims. Continue reading Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown
2015 was hot. Globally, it was the warmest year on record by a large margin. But, there was an El Nino event in the Pacific which probably boosted temperatures slightly (by up to 0.1°C).
So, what can we expect for 2016? Using an analogy of similar El Nino events we can make some suggestions. Continue reading Expectations for 2016 global temperatures
2015 has seen some significant climate events, both meteorological and political. Continue reading 2015 in review
The Paris COP21 continues. The atmosphere today was far more relaxed after the excitement of the speeches from world leaders yesterday. Negotiations have started more seriously with discussions over decarbonisation – perhaps this should be called carbon austerity! Continue reading Reflections from Paris COP – day 2
How will global temperatures evolve over the next 20 years? The IPCC AR5 made an assessment that average global temperatures in the 2016-2035 period would likely be 0.3 – 0.7°C above the 1986-2005 average. Some climate scientists disagree with that assessment. Continue reading Near-term global temperature forecasts