Category Archives: precipitation

Wet get drier (eventually)?

A prevailing paradigm of how rainfall patterns will change on a warming Earth is that the hydrological cycle strengthens causing wet regions to get wetter and dry regions to get drier. However, this is not always the case: Hawkins, Joshi … Continue reading

Posted in GCMs, precipitation, projections, uncertainty | 3 Comments

How “weird” has UK weather been in 2012?

A recent article on the BBC website said: The UK has experienced its “weirdest” weather on record in the past few months, scientists say. The question today is then, is this true?

Posted in history, precipitation, variability, weather | 6 Comments

Projections of maize yields in France

A rather specific question today – what will happen to maize yields in France in 2016-2035?

Posted in crops, precipitation, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability | 5 Comments

Visualising climate with 2d colour bars

A recent paper by Teuling et al. suggested the use of 2d colour bars for visualising climate fields. I thought I would give this a try – and Ryan Teuling was kind enough to provide the code to construct the … Continue reading

Posted in precipitation, projections, uncertainty, visualisation | 1 Comment

When to use uncertain climate forecasts

Climate models produce projections of changes in climate from the present day, but these projections have a range, or spread. A simple measure of the confidence in a forecast would be the signal-to-noise ratio, r, of the size of the … Continue reading

Posted in GCMs, precipitation, projections, uncertainty | Leave a comment

Consensus in precipitation projections

In the AR4, the IPCC presented this figure showing the consensus in precipitation projections for the 21st century, designed to be of use to planning for adaptation and mitigation. The coloured regions show where changes are likely to occur. My … Continue reading

Posted in GCMs, precipitation, projections, variability | 2 Comments