As the annual September sea ice minimum in the Arctic approaches, the usual questions arise about whether this year will set a new record for the extent or volume of ice left at the end of the summer. Although there was a new winter record low in 2017 it is looking unlikely that the summer will also set a record for extent, but there is still a month to go.
We understand that sea ice melt is erratic – we should not expect new records every year, but the overall trend is towards less and less ice. But, what about looking further ahead? And, can we understand sea ice variations during the historical period? Continue reading Linking global temperature and Arctic sea ice changes
The decline of Arctic sea ice over the past 40 years has been one of the more obvious signs that Earth’s climate is warming, especially in the summer when the ice extent reaches its annual minimum. Here you can watch how the amount of sea ice in the Arctic has varied since the start of the satellite era in late-1978. Continue reading Arctic sea ice animation
2015 has seen some significant climate events, both meteorological and political. Continue reading 2015 in review
September is an important month for the Arctic. As the midnight sun begins to set and summer draws to a close, the melt of the Arctic sea ice cover grinds to a halt and the annual ‘sea ice minimum’ is set – usually some time around mid-September.
Guest post by Alek Petty (@AlekPetty), University of Maryland
Continue reading The sea ice orchestra
Imagine a ball bouncing down a bumpy hill. Gravity will ensure that the ball will head downwards. But, if the ball hits a bump at a certain angle it might move horizontally or even upwards for a time, before resuming its inevitable downward trajectory. This bouncing ball is an analogy for the behaviour of Arctic sea-ice.
Post based on Swart et al., Nature Climate Change, or see a less technical summary. Continue reading Arctic sea-ice decline erratic as expected
Arctic sea-ice extent varies considerably from year-to-year, especially in the summer. Skillful forecasts of the expected extent could be valuable to a wide range of Arctic stakeholders. But, how predictable is the Arctic sea-ice extent in summer? And, can more complex sea-ice models with improved representations of key physical processes improve forecasts? Continue reading Predictable September Arctic sea-ice minimum?
Following last year’s simple straw poll, a similar question for this year:
Will the Arctic sea ice extent for September 2014 be more or less than September 2013?
Hoping for views and expectations from public and scientists alike.
Continue reading Arctic sea ice extent in 2014
Understanding the climate of the past is extremely valuable to help put modern weather observations into a long-term context. Although we have considerable records of past weather, especially over land, more data is always welcome. Given the British obsession with the weather it is perhaps of no surprise that more data is available, it is just buried in hand-written logbooks. Transcribing this data is normally a time-consuming and expensive task…. Continue reading Learning about past climate from ships logs