Following last year’s simple straw poll, a similar question for this year:
Will the Arctic sea ice extent for September 2014 be more or less than September 2013?
Hoping for views and expectations from public and scientists alike.
This week is the annual UK Arctic Science Conference, and I will be asking the scientists there. Last year, 80% of scientists correctly predicted there would be more Arctic sea-ice in 2013 than 2012, and this has recently been discussed in The Guardian and The Telegraph.
UPDATE (18/09/13): This question was asked during my talk at the Arctic sea-ice meeting on 17th Sept, with around 30 sea-ice scientists present. All but one voted for a smaller extent next September, although several indicated that they would have voted for ‘similar’ if that option had been available. So, the vast majority of those present believe that Arctic sea-ice extent in September 2014 is more likely to be less than 2013, although a similar sea-ice extent would not be a surprise.
UPDATE (02/04/14): Today at the SIPN workshop, 49 sea-ice scientists were asked for predictions of the September 2014 mean sea-ice extent. The median was 4.6 million sq km, with a 5-95% range of 3.9-5.5 million sq km. The wider Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) project will ask for submissions with a deadline of 1st June.