Category Archives: visualisation

Visualising UK summer temperatures – what are the odds?

How will UK summer temperatures change in future? And, how might we best communicate the possibilities? This is a short post describing one effort in visualising the possible outcomes.

Posted in observations, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 3 Comments

When will we reach 2°C?

A change in global surface temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial climate is often used as a threshold for ‘dangerous climate change’. Although impacts will tend to get worse as temperatures increase, there is no clear evidence yet of such a … Continue reading

Posted in emergence, observations, temperature, variability, visualisation | 4 Comments

Demonstrating climate variability

Communicating climate variability has become an important issue with the recent slowdown in global surface temperature rise. Below are some examples of different aspects of communicating these issues, with a focus on regional spatial scales, but more examples would be … Continue reading

Posted in variability, visualisation | 11 Comments

The cascade of uncertainty in climate projections

Climate projections have demonstrated the need to adapt to a changing climate, but have been less helpful (so far) in guiding how to effectively adapt. Part of the reason is the ‘cascade of uncertainty’ going from assumptions about future global … Continue reading

Posted in projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 11 Comments

The future of the slowdown

Imagine it is 2031, and the IPCC is preparing to release its 8th Assessment Report. How does the recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature rise look? As this largely depends on how fast the climate warms from 2014 onwards, … Continue reading

Posted in observations, projections, temperature, visualisation | 25 Comments

Sources of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections

The recent IPCC AR5 includes a discussion on the sources of uncertainty in climate projections (Fig. 11.8, section 11.3.1.1), which updates previous analyses using CMIP3 (temperature, precipitation) to the latest CMIP5 simulations. The dominant source of uncertainty depends on lead … Continue reading

Posted in GCMs, IPCC AR5, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 13 Comments

Near-term regional climate: the range of possibilities

What are the possible regional temperature trends over the coming few decades? Globally, on average, there is expected to be a long-term warming, but this is not necessarily true for any particular location or period. What are the probabilities of … Continue reading

Posted in GCMs, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 10 Comments

Recent slowdown in global surface temperature rise

The Science Media Centre recently held a briefing for journalists on the recent slowdown in global surface temperature rise, and published an accompanying briefing note. The Met Office also released three reports on the topic. The key points were: (1) … Continue reading

Posted in observations, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 11 Comments

What will the simulations do next?

Recent conversations on the recent slowdown in warming has inspired an animation on how models simulate this phenomenon, and what it means for the evolution of global temperatures over the next few decades.

Posted in temperature, variability, visualisation | 26 Comments

Visualising the role of natural variability

A new analysis by Clara Deser and colleagues (accepted for Nature Climate Change), provides some fantastic visualisations of the crucial role of natural variability in how we will experience climate.

Posted in GCMs, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 18 Comments

Nice climate figures

“A picture is worth a thousand words”, says the popular adage. It is something that we, as climate scientists, should take seriously, especially given the vast quantities of literature we might read through.

Posted in visualisation | 2 Comments

Visualising climate with 2d colour bars

A recent paper by Teuling et al. suggested the use of 2d colour bars for visualising climate fields. I thought I would give this a try – and Ryan Teuling was kind enough to provide the code to construct the … Continue reading

Posted in precipitation, projections, uncertainty, visualisation | 1 Comment