Category Archives: visualisation

The cascade of uncertainty in climate projections

Posted on February 6, 2014 by Ed Hawkins

Climate projections have demonstrated the need to adapt to a changing climate, but have been less helpful (so far) in guiding how to effectively adapt. Part of the reason is the ‘cascade of uncertainty’ going from assumptions about future global … Continue reading →

Posted in projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 11 Comments

The future of the slowdown

Posted on January 28, 2014 by Ed Hawkins

Imagine it is 2031, and the IPCC is preparing to release its 8th Assessment Report. How does the recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature rise look? As this largely depends on how fast the climate warms from 2014 onwards, … Continue reading →

Posted in observations, projections, temperature, visualisation | 25 Comments

Sources of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections

Posted on November 4, 2013 by Ed Hawkins

The recent IPCC AR5 includes a discussion on the sources of uncertainty in climate projections (Fig. 11.8, section 11.3.1.1), which updates previous analyses using CMIP3 (temperature, precipitation) to the latest CMIP5 simulations. The dominant source of uncertainty depends on lead … Continue reading →

Posted in GCMs, IPCC AR5, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 13 Comments

Near-term regional climate: the range of possibilities

Posted on August 6, 2013 by Ed Hawkins

What are the possible regional temperature trends over the coming few decades? Globally, on average, there is expected to be a long-term warming, but this is not necessarily true for any particular location or period. What are the probabilities of … Continue reading →

Posted in GCMs, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 10 Comments

Recent slowdown in global surface temperature rise

Posted on July 25, 2013 by Ed Hawkins

The Science Media Centre recently held a briefing for journalists on the recent slowdown in global surface temperature rise, and published an accompanying briefing note. The Met Office also released three reports on the topic. The key points were: (1) … Continue reading →

Posted in observations, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 11 Comments

What will the simulations do next?

Posted on January 18, 2013 by Ed Hawkins

Recent conversations on the recent slowdown in warming has inspired an animation on how models simulate this phenomenon, and what it means for the evolution of global temperatures over the next few decades.

Posted in temperature, variability, visualisation | 26 Comments

Visualising the role of natural variability

Posted on August 22, 2012 by Ed Hawkins

A new analysis by Clara Deser and colleagues (accepted for Nature Climate Change), provides some fantastic visualisations of the crucial role of natural variability in how we will experience climate.

Posted in GCMs, projections, temperature, uncertainty, variability, visualisation | 16 Comments

Nice climate figures

Posted on April 24, 2012 by Ed Hawkins

“A picture is worth a thousand words”, says the popular adage. It is something that we, as climate scientists, should take seriously, especially given the vast quantities of literature we might read through.

Posted in visualisation | 2 Comments

Visualising climate with 2d colour bars

Posted on July 10, 2011 by Ed Hawkins

A recent paper by Teuling et al. suggested the use of 2d colour bars for visualising climate fields. I thought I would give this a try – and Ryan Teuling was kind enough to provide the code to construct the … Continue reading →

Posted in precipitation, projections, uncertainty, visualisation | 1 Comment