Climate Lab Book blog pages have a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License.
- Robert Pollock on Wet get drier (eventually)?
- Mat Collins on Wet get drier (eventually)?
- Richard Mallett on Visualising UK summer temperatures – what are the odds?
- Ed Hawkins on Visualising UK summer temperatures – what are the odds?
- Robert Pollock on Visualising UK summer temperatures – what are the odds?
- July 2014 (8)
- May 2014 (1)
- April 2014 (2)
- March 2014 (2)
- February 2014 (1)
- January 2014 (1)
- December 2013 (2)
- November 2013 (3)
- October 2013 (1)
- September 2013 (2)
- August 2013 (1)
- July 2013 (4)
- May 2013 (2)
- April 2013 (2)
- February 2013 (2)
- January 2013 (1)
- December 2012 (3)
- October 2012 (1)
- August 2012 (2)
- July 2012 (1)
- June 2012 (3)
- April 2012 (1)
- March 2012 (2)
- February 2012 (1)
- January 2012 (1)
- December 2011 (2)
- November 2011 (1)
- September 2011 (1)
- August 2011 (2)
- July 2011 (1)
- June 2011 (1)
- May 2011 (1)
- March 2011 (2)
- November 2010 (1)
- August 2010 (3)
- June 2010 (2)
Author Archives: Ed Hawkins
A prevailing paradigm of how rainfall patterns will change on a warming Earth is that the hydrological cycle strengthens causing wet regions to get wetter and dry regions to get drier. However, this is not always the case: Hawkins, Joshi … Continue reading
How will UK summer temperatures change in future? And, how might we best communicate the possibilities? This is a short post describing one effort in visualising the possible outcomes.
As the attention received by the ‘global warming hiatus’ demonstrates, global mean surface temperature (T) variability on decadal timescales is of great interest to both the general public and to scientists. Here, I will discuss a recently published paper (Brown … Continue reading
After our recent Brief Communication Arising (BCA) was published in Nature on Mora et al., several people have asked about the process involved in getting such a comment published. Nature apparently only publish a small fraction of BCAs received and … Continue reading
A previous post discussed the recent Comment on Mora et al., which considered mainly methodological & statistical errors. However, the erroneous assumptions regarding uncertainty in the Mora et al. study have further implications for their results on population and income. … Continue reading
Yesterday saw the publication of our Comment on Mora et al., along with Mora et al.’s Reply and an associated ‘News & Views’ piece. Although the Editors deserve credit for commissioning a News & Views piece on this exchange – … Continue reading
Back in October 2013, Nature published an analysis by Camilo Mora et al. which discussed when ‘unprecedented climates’ would emerge, with a focus on regions of high biodiversity. The paper was highlighted by Nature with an associated News & Views … Continue reading
Temperatures have increased over most parts of the planet, but this signal is somewhat obscured by the random noisy fluctuations of natural climate variability. The year in which we can we detect the ‘signal’ of temperature change in the presence … Continue reading
Ideally, we would have observations of past weather everywhere for several centuries to reconstruct the state of the atmosphere and learn about its variability. But, we don’t. Instead, all the observations ever taken would, ideally, be available digitally for everyone … Continue reading
Arctic sea-ice extent varies considerably from year-to-year, especially in the summer. Skillful forecasts of the expected extent could be valuable to a wide range of Arctic stakeholders. But, how predictable is the Arctic sea-ice extent in summer? And, can more … Continue reading
A change in global surface temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial climate is often used as a threshold for ‘dangerous climate change’. Although impacts will tend to get worse as temperatures increase, there is no clear evidence yet of such a … Continue reading
Communicating climate variability has become an important issue with the recent slowdown in global surface temperature rise. Below are some examples of different aspects of communicating these issues, with a focus on regional spatial scales, but more examples would be … Continue reading
Guest post by Piers Forster, with comments from Jonathan Gregory & Ed Hawkins Lewis & Crok have circulated a report, published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), criticising the assessment of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response … Continue reading
Climate projections have demonstrated the need to adapt to a changing climate, but have been less helpful (so far) in guiding how to effectively adapt. Part of the reason is the ‘cascade of uncertainty’ going from assumptions about future global … Continue reading
Imagine it is 2031, and the IPCC is preparing to release its 8th Assessment Report. How does the recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature rise look? As this largely depends on how fast the climate warms from 2014 onwards, … Continue reading
It’s December, which means the usual discussion as to whether or not it will be a white Christmas. You can even bet on it. But, how might these odds change in future? Are children going to know what snow is?
As 2013 is nearly over, it is time for a short update to the comparisons of CMIP5 models and observations for global mean surface air temperatures. Part of the motivation for an update is the Cowtan & Way paper on … Continue reading
The recent global temperature hiatus has been explained by the IPCC AR5 as partly due to natural radiative forcings (solar & volcanic effects) and internal variability. Recently, other effects such as CFCs and biases in the observational coverage have also … Continue reading
The recent IPCC AR5 includes a discussion on the sources of uncertainty in climate projections (Fig. 11.8, section 126.96.36.199), which updates previous analyses using CMIP3 (temperature, precipitation) to the latest CMIP5 simulations. The dominant source of uncertainty depends on lead … Continue reading
The ‘signal’ of a warming climate is emerging against a background ‘noise’ of natural internal variability. Both the magnitude of the signal and the noise vary spatially and seasonally. As society and ecosystems tend to be somewhat adapted to natural … Continue reading
The final version of the IPCC AR5 WG1 assessment on the physical basis for climate change has now been published. The AR5 includes, for the first time, a specific chapter and assessment on ‘near-term’ climate change, which covers the period … Continue reading
Following last year’s simple straw poll, a similar question for this year: Will the Arctic sea ice extent for September 2014 be more or less than September 2013? Hoping for views and expectations from public and scientists alike.
What are the possible regional temperature trends over the coming few decades? Globally, on average, there is expected to be a long-term warming, but this is not necessarily true for any particular location or period. What are the probabilities of … Continue reading
The Science Media Centre recently held a briefing for journalists on the recent slowdown in global surface temperature rise, and published an accompanying briefing note. The Met Office also released three reports on the topic. The key points were: (1) … Continue reading
A very simple question for this short post: what length pause (trend < 0) in global mean surface temperature could be simulated in a warming climate?