As 2013 is nearly over, it is time for a short update to the comparisons of CMIP5 models and observations for global mean surface air temperatures. Part of the motivation for an update is the Cowtan & Way paper on spatial coverage biases in HadCRUT4, which has been given prominent attention in blogs and the media, notably the front page of The Independent.
The figure below is an updated version of Figure 11.25 from IPCC AR5 which includes the Cowtan & Way data (CW13, blue) and HadCRUT4 data (black, provisional for 2013). The CW13 data shows an increased global temperature trend, and is within the 5-95% uncertainty of the HadCRUT4 observations (red). CW13 is also just within the 5-95% CMIP5 range (light grey).
Overall these updates are fairly minor. This figure will be updated from time to time at this permanent page as new temperature data accumulates.